Halloween-A Statistical Analysis

Three years ago, we gave away plenty of Halloween candy to close to 100 trick or treating kids, mostly those of the early teen persuasion. We didn't even live here yet, we lived in the neighborhood, but didn't get foot traffic on our cul de sac.

Two years ago, we had about 10 kids stop by. Last year, the same thing. Both years, we stocked up on candy, thinking we'd have a repeat of 2009. Heck, last year, I added Capri Suns to the mix.

This year, we had more kids ring the doorbell than the past two years combined. We alternated who answered the door, but I think we were closer to 50 this time around. Ed purchased the candy, and we seemed to hit our numbers right, with some left over.

Normally, I'd be on campus for a class tonight, but the professor took the requests of several students who wanted the night off (after he told us we were a week ahead on course materials.) Instead, at 8pm, I went into the bedroom and hopped online for a class session, and I heard the doorbell a few more times while I worked. It was nice to participate in handing out the goodies for a bit, though.

As it was a stats class I was in, though, I wondered what I can predict next year's trick or treater population will be, based on my data of the past four years. In any case, if I use my skills in this area, I know me-I'll predict high, buy more candy than needed, and the menfolk will be happy.


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